A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
