Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
